April 23, 2026, 11:17 am | Read time: 5 minutes

Last year, we reported on TRAVELBOOK about plans to possibly elevate the Italian lagoon city of Venice. The research team led by Piero Lionello from the University of Salento is now taking a much more radical step forward. In a report published in the scientific journal Scientific Reports, he explained that the “significant risks posed by the ongoing and projected sea level rise for Venice and its lagoon require unprecedented, long-term adaptation strategies.” If current and future aid measures fail or if environmental impacts leading to the sinking of the popular Italian city cannot be mitigated, relocation of Venice might be the only option left.

Why Venice Is Sinking

The Italian UNESCO World Heritage city, which according to researchers attracts more than 22 million visitors annually, is situated just above sea level. This alone is already critical given its constant rise. According to the research team, more than half of Venice was only between 80 centimeters and 1.20 meters above sea level in 2020. By 2100, researchers expect a rise of 0.42 to 0.81 meters compared to the beginning of the century. For Venice, this means “that without protective measures, 15 percent, 70 percent, and 98 percent of the city center would be flooded daily during astronomical tide maxima,” the study states. By 2300, the global sea level could rise by 0.3 to 3.1 meters (low) or 1.7 to 6.8 meters (very high) depending on the emissions scenario, possibly even beyond.

In addition to the globally rising sea level, Venice faces a second problem: the ground beneath the lagoon city is continuously sinking. The result of both circumstances has been flooding in Venice for over 150 years. According to the study, in the last 23 years alone, more than 60 percent of the city has been underwater 18 times.

What’s Happening Now

In 2022, a system of mobile barriers, known as Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico (MoSE), was deployed to prevent major flooding. “MoSE closes the three lagoon inlets during storm surges,” the researchers explain. In its normal state, the system lies on the seabed, allowing for shipping and water exchange with the open sea without issues.

The barrier system works well and has protected Venice so far, but researchers anticipate that its effectiveness will be limited as sea levels rise, with increased closures likely leading to malfunctions and operational delays. This would eventually “compromise the protection of monuments and the safety of residents.” Additionally, according to the researchers, there are problems for port operations, ecosystems, and the sewage system. Ultimately, all of this leads to costs in the billions. One consideration at this point is relocating the port. Other measures, such as elevating the lagoon (see above), specific areas, and constructing protective structures, could help extend the strategy of the open lagoon. The researchers also discuss in the report the “demolition and reconstruction of individual buildings on-site” on elevated foundations. However, this would save only the most important monuments, not the city itself, they note.

“Given the currently inadequate climate protection measures, the current strategy of the open lagoon with mobile barriers and various adaptation measures is likely to reach its limits within this century,” the researchers conclude.

Also interesting: Thanks to the flood protection system! Venice avoids flooding

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These Other Measures Could Be Taken

One of the possible follow-up strategies is so-called ring dikes. This involves isolating the city center and other settlements from the rest of the lagoon. The lagoon would remain connected to the open sea. This would preserve “monuments, residential areas, and most economic functions.” However, “the traditional landscape and the physical and cultural connection between the city and the lagoon” would change, the report states. Researchers suspect that the altered image would also impact tourism. Additionally, the establishment of an efficient urban sewage and pumping system is necessary. This system also incurs costs in the billions.

A second possible follow-up strategy is closing the lagoon itself using coastal dikes. The lagoon would then be transformed into a coastal lake, “similar to Marina Bay in Singapore and the IJsselmeer in the Netherlands,” the study states. In the closed lagoon, cultural heritage and residential areas, as well as corresponding tourist activities, would be preserved, and the cityscape would remain unchanged. However, the natural ecosystem of the lagoon would be sacrificed. New measures to control water quality within the lagoon would also need to be created, and the port relocated. Once again, costs would be in the billions.

If Everything Goes Wrong – Relocating Venice

All these strategies can help, some longer, some less so. However, if the sea level rises extremely, none of them will hold, the researchers write. The only alternative to save Venice then would be relocating the monuments inland. In this strategy, both Venice’s residents and selected monuments and buildings would move. “The historical cityscape, lagoon-related culture, traditional ways of life, and most economic activities” would be “irretrievably lost,” the researchers write.

The alternative seems much worse, however. “Without active management, a significant sea level rise would transform today’s lagoon into a deeper marine area, where non-native species, warmer and saltier water would create a new ecosystem fundamentally different from the historical lagoon that has shaped Venice’s cultural and natural heritage,” the report states. In this future scenario, new residential areas would emerge, and the newly constructed monuments elsewhere could be visited by tourists, as could the submerged remains via boats and submarines. For Venice’s residents, the researchers foresee no easy future: “Residents could either gradually move away as areas shrink with increasing flooding (…) or abruptly after catastrophic events caused by the failure of the implemented protection system.”

There is still a bit of time, and we here today will likely not witness any of this. The researchers explain that relocating Venice “could become inevitable in the 22nd century given current climate policies and a collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet.” However, swift countermeasures could still “avert the most severe long-term consequences.”